AI is growing fast, memory shortage hits record levels

The sharp rise in demand for artificial intelligence (AI) chips has triggered a new crisis in the semiconductor industry — this time, the main issue is a shortage of memory chips (DRAM/NAND). As AI-focused data centers require significantly more resources, manufacturers of consumer electronics such as smartphones and personal computers are being pushed further down the supply chain priority list. As a result, price pressure is increasing and production plans are being revised.

According to the report, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which is widely used in AI accelerators, is absorbing around 70% of the industry’s overall high-performance memory capacity. This shift is tightening supply for traditional markets and making the shortage more severe. Micron’s Executive Vice President of Operations, Manish Bhatia, described the situation as an “unprecedented shortage.”

This supply crunch is already influencing 2026 forecasts for major manufacturers. In addition to large PC makers such as Dell, key smartphone brands including Xiaomi, Oppo, and Transsion are adopting more cautious production planning. It is noted that Oppo has reduced its production volume by up to 20% in response to rising costs.

Research firm Counterpoint Research states that global smartphone shipments grew by 2% year-on-year in 2025, but expectations for 2026 have become more conservative. According to Tarun Pathak, Research Director at Counterpoint, ongoing DRAM/NAND shortages and rising component costs have led to a revised outlook, lowering the projected shipment growth for 2026 by 3%. The report also highlights that Apple and Samsung may remain relatively stable due to stronger supply capabilities, while Chinese brands focused on budget segments are likely to face greater pressure.

In response to the crisis, memory manufacturers are taking steps to expand capacity. Micron has held a groundbreaking ceremony for a major production project in New York State near Syracuse, while also moving forward with plans in Taiwan aimed at DRAM production starting in 2027. The company continues to emphasize large-scale investment plans in U.S. manufacturing and R&D.

Analysts also expect further price increases in the HBM segment in 2026. UBS forecasts that the average price per bit of HBM will rise by 18.5% in 2026, pushing HBM revenue to $32.7 billion. A significant share of that revenue is expected to contribute directly to SK Hynix’s operating profit.

Experts warn that if the shortage continues, production costs for smartphones and computers will increase, potentially leading to higher retail prices or specifications being scaled back in certain product segments.